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Sub-Saharan Africa is becoming the world’s most volatile region for armed conflict, according to the 2025 Global Peace Index (GPI) released on Wednesday.
Of the 44 African countries assessed by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), more than half saw a deterioration in their militarisation scores, driven by swelling defence budgets, intensifying cross-border entanglements and a stark decline in peacebuilding investment.
While international focus remains trained on the Russia-Ukraine war and the Middle East, the GPI warns that Africa’s conflicts are becoming both more entrenched and more ignored.
We’re seeing a shift away from US and French influence towards Russia and China in the economic sphere
Conflicts in Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Burkina Faso are among the five most likely to escalate globally in the coming year.
“Ethiopia, eastern DRC, and South Sudan have nearly all nine risk factors for conflict escalation,” says Thomas Morgan, chief research officer at the IEP.
Military spending up
In a sharp reversal of earlier trends, military spending in sub-Saharan Africa is on the rise. More than 23 countries increased military expenditure as a share of GDP, including Nigeria, Ghana, Tanzania and Burkina Faso, often justified as a move to ‘defend sovereignty’ amid rising insurgencies and political instability.
The deterioration was most visible in Burkina Faso and Mali, where military juntas have withdrawn from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and deepened partnerships with Russia and the newly formed Alliance of Sahel States. These countries now face growing allegations of human rights abuses, unaccountable military spending, and repression of civil society.
“We’re seeing a shift away from US and French influence towards Russia and China in the economic sphere,” says Morgan. “That shift is changing the focus from counterterrorism to regime security.”
Rights groups have accused these governments of using security imperatives to consolidate power, suppress civil society and commit abuses under the veil of counterinsurgency.
More troops abroad, less peace at home
Africa’s military ambitions now extend beyond national borders. The GPI spotlights the growing number of African countries deploying military forces outside their borders. Rwanda, Nigeria, Ghana, and Tanzania are each engaged in five or more external conflicts, ranging from African Union and United Nations deployments to bilateral military assistance missions.
The line between peacekeeping and power projection is increasingly blurred across Africa’s security landscape
Rwanda has deployed thousands of troops to Mozambique, the Central African Republic and Benin, styling itself as a regional peace enforcer. But critics say this is less about solidarity than strategy.
“The line between peacekeeping and power projection is increasingly blurred across Africa’s security landscape,” says geopolitical researcher Lasisi Abara. “The risk of peace becoming secondary to influence is there.”
DRC has now overtaken Afghanistan as the fourth least peaceful country in the world, with violence surging in the eastern provinces. The GPI points to persistent instability from the M23 insurgency, complex foreign interference — including allegations of Rwandan support — and the failure of regional peace efforts.
Meanwhile, Sudan continues its deadly spiral following the 2023 rupture between the Rapid Support Forces and Sudanese Armed Forces. The GPI estimates over 6,800 conflict-related deaths in 2024 alone.
“Weak state capacity isn’t just a vulnerability; it’s an accelerant,” Morgan says. “In places like the tri-border region or Darfur, even small conflicts can spiral due to the absence of functioning institutions.”
The war in Sudan has disrupted humanitarian access, spread arms across borders into Chad, South Sudan, and Eritrea and displaced over 10 million people.
Peacebuilding starved of resources
Despite the sharp rise in militarisation, global peacebuilding and peacekeeping accounted for just 0.52% of military expenditure in 2024, a staggering 26% decline since 2008. This has disproportionately impacted Africa, historically the largest recipient of donor-backed peace initiatives.
The GPI warns that cuts to Official Development Assistance (ODA), including youth employment schemes, reconciliation projects, and local mediation efforts, are accelerating fragility.
Africa is facing different drivers of peace and conflict under more pressure, with weaker institutions and more foreign interference
Add to that the sovereign debt crisis in Africa, as governments now allocate up to 42% of their revenue to debt servicing, leaving few resources for peace-focused governance or economic resilience.
The 2025 GPI concludes that global peacefulness has deteriorated in 13 of the past 17 years, with sub-Saharan Africa accounting for a growing share of the decline. The IEP calls for urgent reinvestment in what it terms “Positive Peace”, a framework built on eight pillars including good governance, low corruption, access to information and human capital development.
“What began as tribal or ethnic disputes in the Sahel have been reframed in jihadist terms,” says Morgan. “That rebranding draws in external funding and firepower, increasing the likelihood of long-term escalation.”
Though some bright spots such as improvements in telecommunications access and political transitions in countries like The Gambia exist, the broader picture is one of backsliding.
For Morgan, Africa is not facing different drivers of peace and conflict; it is just facing them under more pressure, with weaker institutions and more foreign interference.