Politico.com 3.12.2024
With help from Phelim Kine
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U.S. officials, lawmakers and human rights advocates are increasingly frustrated that President JOE BIDEN is giving a pass to a key Middle East ally that has allegedly funneled weapons to a militia accused of genocide in Sudan.
The United Arab Emirates, a major U.S. partner in the Middle East, has allegedly helped arm and fund the Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, militia in Sudan that has been accused of widespread atrocities including ethnic cleansing, mass rape and torture.
The Biden administration has sharply rebuked these alleged atrocities and sanctioned actors on all sides involved in the Sudanese civil war while also pushing for peace talks. But privately, some U.S. officials say the Biden administration is effectively letting the UAE off the hook for prolonging the conflict — which is considered one of the world’s deadliest ongoing conflicts and the worst ongoing humanitarian crisis.
“We’re so good at calling out Russian atrocities in Ukraine or atrocities by Hamas with the Gaza war, but when it comes to Sudan and the UAE, we just do finger-wagging behind the scenes,” fumed one U.S. official who works on Africa policy and like others was granted anonymity to discuss the matter candidly. “It’s embarrassing to see this double standard from the inside.”
The UAE has denied backing the RSF despite mounting evidence from U.N. reports, State Department-funded studies and independent investigations by prominent media outlets.
Biden officials say they have had blunt conversations with UAE officials behind the scenes over the war in Sudan, but stick to carefully-couched language on the matter in public.
The UAE, after all, is seen as a critical U.S. partner in negotiations in several wars in the Middle East and other aspects of U.S. geopolitical competition with Russia and China. Calling the UAE out over Sudan could complicate U.S. interests elsewhere in the world.
Sudan’s ambassador to Washington, MOHAMED ABDALLA IDRIS, said the United States was inconsistent in how it called out atrocities in Sudan linked to the UAE versus other global conflicts but acknowledged the complexities of U.S.-UAE ties. “We know that it’s a double standard,” he said. “They themselves, the decision-makers, they know it. But you know, they have interests with the United Arab Emirates elsewhere,” he said, citing U.S. ties with the UAE on other major global crises, including the war in Gaza and the war in Ukraine.
The White House and State Department did not respond to a request for comment. Neither did the UAE embassy in Washington.
On Capitol Hill, Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) and Rep. SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.) have advanced legislation to block U.S. arms sales to the UAE over its role in arming the RSF and worsening Sudan’s civil war.
On Monday, they sent a new letter directly to Biden on the matter. The letter, a copy of which was obtained by NatSec Daily, puts an interesting twist on the usual back-and-forths between lawmakers and the White House on foreign arms sales: The lawmakers say they’ll halt their planned legislation on blocking arms sales to the UAE but only if Biden confirms to them that the UAE is not supplying the RSF with weapons.
Van Hollen and Jacobs in their letter said: “Your administration has rightly put pressure on the RSF by sanctioning several high-level commanders for their atrocities, but we believe you have yet to use the full leverage at your disposal to hold accountable their primary external backer.”
NICOLE WIDDERSHEIM of the Human Rights Watch advocacy group said that Biden’s legacy in Africa will be inextricably linked to “the failure to leverage U.S. relationships with the UAE who are violating a U.N. arms embargo and arming the RSF in Sudan who have committed unspeakable atrocity crimes over 18 months.” Widdersheim said this “directly contradicts Biden’s own atrocity prevention strategy.”
Biden’s special envoy to Sudan, TOM PERRIELLO, visited Port Sudan, the provisional capital for the Sudanese government, for the first time in his role last month. So far, U.S. and international efforts to broker peace talks have run aground. The United States has accused both the RSF and SAF of war crimes, and accused the RSF of ethnic cleansing.
The Inbox
FAILED SOUTH KOREAN SELF-COUP? South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL declared “emergency martial law” today, accusing the country’s opposition parties of sympathizing with North Korea and vowing to restore the country’s constitutional order.
But within hours, he walked it back after facing sharp resistance from members of his own party and burgeoning protests.
Even though the effort failed, it could seriously derail democratic institutions in one of the United States’ most important allies in East Asia. It’s worth noting that South Korea also hosts some 28,000 U.S. service members stationed on the Korean Peninsula.
U.S. officials expressed concern over the events in South Korea and emphasized that Washington was given no heads up; Biden was briefed on the events while he traveled in Angola on Tuesday.
Yoon — who was already struggling with poor public opinion polls and a domestic agenda stymied by a divided parliament — has dealt himself a damaging blow.
“Based on South Korea’s identity as a prosperous liberal democracy, this is likely to be hugely damaging to Yoon — this will be his legacy, more than any other act,” said SHEENA CHESTNUT GREITENS, an associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin and an expert on U.S.-South Korean relations.
Yoon’s move also muddies the Biden administration’s championing of South Korea under Yoon as a key element of Biden’s Indo-Pacific Strategy. Yoon echoed that rhetoric by advocating that Seoul “actively promote a free, open and inclusive order in the Indo-Pacific.” The upheaval in Seoul “is the last thing the Biden administration wanted to see today,” Greitens added.
UKRAINE PEACE PLANS: Kyiv is publicly acknowledging that some form of a negotiated solution to the conflict may be needed, but a plethora of disparate proposals are circulating — and no clear vision for peace is prevailing.
As our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA and HANS VON DER BURCHARD report, Kyiv and Moscow are far from reaching any kind of consensus about what a negotiated end to the conflict would resemble. And there’s no indication either side is willing to back proposals from the incoming Trump administration or Trump’s pick to be special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, Lt. Gen. KEITH KELLOGG.
One of the biggest sticking points is Ukraine’s continued insistence on being invited to join the NATO alliance. Ukrainian Foreign Minister ANDRII SYBIHA said today that Kyiv “will not accept” any security guarantees other than full NATO membership, pointing to the failure of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum at securing Ukrainian sovereignty amid Russia’s threats.
CUBA’S REMITTANCES RUN-AROUND: Cuba’s military created a front company to evade U.S. sanctions against it and to tap into the lucrative remittance processing business, per The Miami Herald’s NORA GÁMEZ TORRES.
Trump administration sanctions in 2020 blocked the Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A, or GAESA — the Cuban military’s umbrella corporation that manages its business interests in the tourism and financial sector — from processing remittances from Cuban exiles to their family members on the island. That prompted Havana to create a new company to effectively replace these public-facing efforts.
The revelations highlight the perennial challenge at the heart of U.S. sanctions policies — how to ensure punitive measures keep up with adversaries’ constant efforts to circumvent them.
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Transition 2024
HEGSETH’S HILL ADVENTURES, DAY 2: Trump’s pick to be Defense secretary, PETE HEGSETH, is back on the Hill for another slate of meetings with critical senators.
As our own JOE GOULD and CONNOR O’BRIEN report, Hegseth is set to meet with at least three Republicans this afternoon: Sens. TED BUDD (R-N.C.), JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) and ERIC SCHMITT (R-Mo.). Budd and Schmitt sit on the Senate Armed Services Committee, which oversees the confirmation process for Pentagon appointments, while Risch — who is poised to hold the gavel of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee — has influence within the caucus and has not yet backed Hegseth.
Hegseth’s efforts come as his personal conduct, including allegations of alcohol abuse and sexual misconduct, has raised questions among some Senate Republicans about his viability to run the Defense Department. Hegseth has denied wrongdoing.
For now, the Trump team shows no signs of ditching Hegseth. On CNN this morning, Trump senior adviser JASON MILLER swatted suggestions that Hegseth’s nomination is in trouble. “When it comes to Pete Hegseth, there aren’t any concerns and we feel very good about his positioning for being confirmed by the Senate,” Miller told CNN’s KASIE HUNT.
Keystrokes
CHIPS TIT-FOR-TAT: China responded to new U.S. export controls with its own restrictions — this time, targeting critical minerals.
As our own PHELIM KINE reports (for Pros!), China is blocking the U.S. from importing germanium and gallium, elements that are critical in manufacturing chips and the solar cells that go into solar panels. It comes in response to the Commerce Department’s decision on Monday to unveil a new slate of restrictions preventing Chinese companies from purchasing the semiconductor manufacturing equipment and chips used in AI and advanced computing.
The U.S. says those restrictions are needed to block the flow of that tech to China’s military-industrial complex.
Read: Chinese hack of global telecom providers is ‘ongoing,’ officials warn by own our MAGGIE MILLER
The Complex
FINER’S SILICON VALLEY JAUNT: Deputy national security adviser JON FINER hit the road last month on a key mission: deepening ties with startups and major tech companies in Silicon Valley as the U.S. looks to define the future of warfare.
As our friends at Morning Defense reported this morning (for Pros!), Finer met with executives from Palantir Technologies, Anduril Industries, OpenAI, Elon Musk’s SpaceX and semiconductor maker Entropic Communications.
It comes as the Biden administration has worked to integrate smaller startups into a defense industrial base that has long been dominated by large and established companies. It also follows the Pentagon’s efforts to study the war in Ukraine and how advancements in small drones and electronic warfare are changing the battlefield.
On the Hill
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — BIPARTISAN FARA REFORM: A bipartisan trio of senators is looking to tighten the rules around former government officials being able to lobby on behalf of U.S. adversaries.
Sens. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas), PETER WELCH (D-Vt.) and Risch are introducing a bill today that would ban former agency chiefs, deputies and other Senate-confirmed officials from lobbying on behalf of “countries of concern,” which they identify as Cuba, China, Iran, North Korea, Russia and Syria. They also add a two-year cooling period before agency chiefs, deputies and other Senate-confirmed officials can lobby for any foreign government and create a mechanism for adding other U.S. adversaries to the list of “countries of concerns.”
The Conflict-free Leaving Employment and Activity Restrictions (CLEAR) Path Act faces an uncertain future in Congress, as there is no House companion bill. There is also no indication it will be folded into the NDAA. But the issue of foreign influence has achieved new relevance on Capitol Hill in the wake of high-level prosecutions of figures like former Sen. BOB MENENDEZ and Korea analyst SUE MI TERRY, raising its odds of passage.
“When it comes to influencing U.S. policymaking, our adversaries will stop at nothing to get what they want — including using our own citizens to act on their behalf,” said Cornyn.
Broadsides
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — COTTON’S CHINESE POLICE PUSH: Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) is introducing new legislation to expel Chinese law enforcement officers covertly operating within the United States.
The Expel Illegal Chinese Police Act would sanction Chinese police institutions operating in the U.S. and their associates, and sanction agents of the Chinese Communist Party’s United Front Work Department that are trying to monitor and intimidate individuals on U.S. soil.
The bill comes as China has stepped up its intimidation campaigns against critics and dissidents living in the United States and its influence campaigns within the United States. Among those China has targeted in the United States are Uighur Muslims who fled repression in China. Members of the United Front Work Department are also believed to have infiltrated state-level governments, as exhibited by the indictment of LINDA SUN, a former aide to New York Govs. ANDREW CUOMO and KATHY HOCHUL, on charges she was working as an unregistered agent of China.
It has a strong chance of getting passed, especially if it’s included in the spate of China bills that will likely be folded into this year’s NDAA.
“This legislation sends a clear message: the United States will not tolerate illegal operations that violate our sovereignty and intimidate individuals living within our borders,” Cotton said.
Transitions
— DANIEL NASAW is joining AI supply chain management startup Altana Technologies as senior director of content. He is the former national security news editor at the Wall Street Journal and is a veteran of the BBC and the Guardian.
— JEREMY PANER has joined law firm Hughes Hubbard’s sanctions, export controls and anti-money laundering practice. Paner worked as a lead sanctions investigator and analyst for the Treasury Department’s Office of Global Targeting within the Office of Foreign Assets Control before entering private practice.
What to Read
— RASHA ELASS, New Lines Magazine: Assad was disengaging from iran, but his next steps are unclear
— YAROSLAV TROFIMOV and ISABEL COLES, The Wall Street Journal: How a Syrian rebel went from an American jail to seizing Aleppo
— The Cipher Brief: Memo to the 47th President: A roadmap for the US and the Middle East
Tomorrow Today
— Hudson Institute, 9 a.m.: Alaska’s strategic importance for the Indo-Pacific
— Georgetown University’s Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues, 9 a.m.: Chinese lending to the global south: A boon for development or gateway to debt collection?
— Wilson Center’s Global Europe Program, 10 a.m.: 2024 Ahtisaari Symposium on “Finland’s Decision to Join NATO.”
— Hudson Institute, 12:30 p.m.: The state of Israel’s war against the resistance axis
— Wilson Center’s Africa Program, 1 p.m.: Religious institutions and peacebuilding in Ethiopia
— Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1:30 p.m.: Project Sapphire at 30: U.S.-Kazakh cooperation to reduce nuclear threats
— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: “Fortifying the U.S. Defense Industrial Base” with national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN
— Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 4 p.m.: The (next) battle for northwest Syria: U.S. policy implications
— George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 5 p.m.: Engaging America: Ambassadorial perspectives on public diplomacy
Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who is creating shell companies to circumvent our sanctions.
Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is helping us enforce sanctions against Rosie (and Heidi).