Prospects for a Transformed Sudan: Five Post-Revolution Scenarios


PRIO Policy Brief

Frafjord Johnson, Hilde (2019) Prospects for a Transformed Sudan: Five Post-Revolution Scenarios, PRIO Policy Brief, 16. Oslo: PRIO.

On 11 April 2019, former Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir was swept from power on a wave of popular protests that took place over 16 weeks. This momentous shift, now called the Sudanese Revolution, ended the National Congress Party’s 30-year rule. Then on 17 August, the Transitional Military Council (TMC) – generals who had governed Sudan in the intervening months – signed a power-sharing agreement with the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC). While regime change has been achieved on paper, the Islamist security state is still very much alive. Against this background, what are the challenges facing the new transitional government and what will it take for a new Sudan to become a reality? This policy brief analyzes these questions in five different scenarios, before outlining key recommendations for international stakeholders.